Thursday, April 19, 2018

The Next Party Re-Alignment in the U.S.?

Ramesh Ponnunu: some good thoughts with data.

A brief mention that Trump lost the popular vote--if that happens again, could undermine confidence in the electoral system. It's seldom noted that Hillary won the popular vote because of California, and it is reasonable to suspect that her numbers there were pumped a bit by illegals. Why else would California be such an anomaly?

Hispanics/Latinos get a lot of attention, but they have not recently turned out at 50% or more, unlike whites and blacks, and they are more divided than blacks--about 25% for Trump, including Cubans in Florida. Except for Florida, the states with a lot of Hispanics are not swing states--Texas is solidly Republican, and California is solidly Democratic. Changes in the Hispanic vote are not likely to swing these states. With blacks, by comparison, there are large populations in the most often-referenced swing states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and (now) Wisconsin. Black turnout went up for Obama, back down again in 2016. Trump did about the same as Romney with blacks, probably slightly better with Hispanics--contrary to many predictions that Trump would be wiped out with all voters who identified as people of colour.

What will young people think? I guess they're more in favour of open borders than older people, and they associate this with a great new America of diversity and openness regarding sexual preference, gender, family arrangements and so on. They will want the welfare state to pay for some of this--look after seniors so families don't have to, provide support for child care. On the other hand, if open borders tends to make every big issue of the day worse--law and order, the cost of various welfare programs, schools--is there a chance that some young people will decide the government can't do everything, and will therefore favour some drastic cost-cutting somewhere, thus favouring Repubicans? Private schools with relatively cheap tuition? I don't know. If so, this supports those Republicans who have given up on open borders, and say many immigrants will be natural Republicans: they want to work hard and get ahead, and they will be impatient with hearing about a large population of people who will need help into an indefinite future. There has always been a tendency in the U.S. to give up on the poor--the Dems spending money without much examination into what works, the Reps either preferring no action or some private sector approach. There are various trends, including automation, that point toward de facto segregation--gated communities for the rich, hell-holes for the poor, and a middle class struggling along. The U.S. might welcome the Third World, and become more like a Third World country.

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