Monday, August 2, 2010

The hockey stick is dead

It's now just a matter of performing the last rites. Steve McIntyre is vindicated in that more and more people who are not known as sceptics are discovering what complete bullshit Mann's work was from the beginning. (See also here). McIntyre has always said that there were simple statistical checks that should have been performed and either were not performed, or were performed and then the results were not published because they didn't support the hockey stick. In either case there are literally thousands of people who should have been calling bullshit from the beginning instead of saying "it's climate science, Mann must know what he is doing," "it's peer reviewed," "it's political, I'll get smeared as a creationist," or whatever.

There are reliable methods that show no significant temperature increase for a thousand years before the 20th century, then an abrupt increase? Bullshit.

Proxy methods that have been specifically discredited should be used anyway, even though the results don't matter? Bullshit.

That several independent lines of research, not dependent on faulty proxies, confirm the hockey stick? Bullshit.

That there is precise and reliable data available from proxies, comparable to actual temperature data, available from before 1850? Bullshit.

That there is good reason to believe the 20th century was unusually and dangerously warm? Bullshit. Insofar as pre-20th century records mean anything, there was probably a medieval warming period--comparable to the 20th century, the warming not man-made, and not regarded at the time as a crisis or catastrophe.

That there is a clear correlation between dramatic and/or dangerous temperature increases, other weather occurrences, and man-made CO2? Probably bullshit. With no correlation, no basis to speculate on cause and effect.

Mann and others may have started with a zeal to publish, enthusiasm at what seemed an exciting discovery, rushing their work, and maybe some incompetence. But as time as gone on, and he and his acolytes have become more stubborn in defending the indefensible, there has been more and more dishonesty.

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