Tuesday, October 20, 2009

More problems for the IPCC Model

A new analysis of Global satellite data to find temperature trends for the period January 1979 through June 2009. (h/t good old Anthony Watts)

In this thirty year period, there was cooling at the beginning and at the end, and a warming period in the middle. Projections indicate that either cooling, or "flat" temperature readings,is likely for another 15 or more years.

Analysis of the satellite data shows a statistically significant cooling trend for the past 12 to 13 years, with it not being possible to reject a flat trend (0 slope) for between 16 and 23 years. This is a length of time at which disagreement with climate models can no longer be attributed to simple LTP.

I take this mean: they have confidence in the cooling numbers for the past 12 to 13 years, and they have relatively high confidence that there will be no warming (either cooling or flat) for another 16 to 23 years. Their confidence extends over a period of time significant enough that they can compare their findings to "climate models," knowing that disagreements are too great to ascribe them to LTP or Long-Term Persistence of anomalies or deviations from a trend.

Which models do they compare to?

On the other hand, studies cited herein have documented a 50–70 year cycle of climate oscillations overlaid on a simple linear warming trend since the mid-1800s and have used this model to forecast cooling beginning between 2001 and 2010, a prediction that seems to be upheld by the satellite and ocean heat content data. Other studies made this same prediction of transition to cooling based on solar activity indices or from ocean circulation regime changes.

There are some models that their findings support--the models that have predicted the present cooling period.

In contrast, the climate models [such as the IPCC model] predict the recent flat to cooling trend only as a rare stochastic event. The linear warming trend in these models [the ones mentioned before] that is obtained by subtracting the 60–70 yr cycle, while unexplained at present, is clearly inconsistent with climate model predictions because it begins too soon (before greenhouse gases were elevated) and does not accelerate as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate. This model and the empirical evidence for recent cooling thus provide a challenge to
climate model accuracy.

These authors confine the phrase "climate model" to the type of model one finds in the IPCC reports, or the Gore/Hansen approach. Somewhat confusingly, they also refer to other "models" relevant to climate, that point to very different findings. Their new analysis of satellite findings supports the latter models, not the IPCC-type model. There is a cycle of cooling-warming-cooling; it doesn't match the steady increase in anthropogenic CO2; it probably does match both "solar activity" and "ocean circulation regime changes."

Also from Anthony: a new hunt for past hurricanes that may have been missed in weather reports. (Let's find some more hurricanes to support our theory).

"Before satellite observations began in the 1960s, weather monitoring was spotty." Hardy har har.

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