Friday, December 18, 2009

Climate: Data, Data, Data

The more people look at raw temperature data from specific regions of the world, and apply some reasonable process to allow for changes in environment, low number of stations, etc., the more it seems the big cheese warmists (perhaps 50 or 60 people) have fudged, or have encouraged national weather offices to fudge, the numbers. There is a real possibility that there is no robust data showing the twentieth century was unusually warm, or that there was a warming trend from the beginning of the century to the end, corresponding to the increase in anthropogenic CO2. There may be no correlation between the increase in man-made CO2 and anything bad at all.

The Met in the UK has relied on a changing number of weather stations: from very few in 1850, to a lot more in 1950. There is supposed to be a way of correcting for that--building in a margin of error in the early years, to allow for the fact that much of the area of the country is not being accurately captured by the readings. One researcher seems to have found that some warming indeed appears in the twentieth century, when the numbers are properly adjusted, but all the warming is within the margin of error in the 1850 numbers. There simply isn't much info about 1850. Maybe 1950 was warmer, but then again, maybe not.

One of my favourites, since the alleged thawing of both poles keeps coming up, is Antarctica.

Since 1993, the official temperature data for the Antarctic has depended on one weather station, out of a possible 27.

This one station, Rothera Point, is on the Antarctic Peninsula, which is known by various measures to be warmer than the Antarctic as a whole.

This one station has the highest temperature trend of any of the ten stations in the Antarctic that have been used for readings up to 1993. It is not clear why other stations have not been used consistently.

Rothera Point has an airport built in 1990-91, a hangar, a coffee shop and various buildings that would tend to warm things up.

Wikipedia:

West Antarctica is currently experiencing a net outflow of glacial ice, which will increase global sea level over time. A review of the scientific studies looking at data from 1992 to 2006 suggested a net loss of around 50 Gigatonnes of ice per year was a reasonable estimate (around 0.14 mm of sea level rise).[75] Significant acceleration of outflow glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment may have more than doubled this figure for the year 2006.[76]

East Antarctica is a cold region with a ground base above sea level and occupies most of the continent. This area is dominated by small accumulations of snowfall which becomes ice and thus eventually seaward glacial flows. The mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near to balance.[75][76] However, increased ice outflow has been suggested in some regions.[76][77]


I believe this means: as far as anyone knows, little to no net loss of ice is occurring at Antarctica. (East Antarctica, either gaining ice or staying the same, is much bigger than West Antarctica, losing ice).

Also many people are reporting the extreme cold and snow in Copenhagen during the last week or so of the Global Warming Conference Boo! I did a little more checking:

Both snowy and cold--overnight lows as much as 10 degrees below the average for December.

I know, weather isn't climate, but it's still funny.

Because of poor planning by people who want to establish a global government, many people stood in line in the cold for six hours or more.

"It was cold, even for a Canadian," said Gerald Butts, president and CEO of the World Wildlife Fund Canada, who waited five hours in line to get his pass to enter the building.


Also a cold blizzard waiting in DC for Obama and many others. It's not out of the question that Dulles will be closed.

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